Biological Stock (600201) Research Report: Steady Recovery in Downstream Demand, New Line in Full Production
Recently, we conducted a field survey of biological shares. The main content feedback is as follows: Industry scale: 1. Demand side: 1) The production capacity is gradually restored.
The throughput of the downstream pig breeding industry has been recovering. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of December 2019, the national sow breeding stocks increased by 2 compared with the previous month.
2%, a sequential increase for 3 consecutive months, the number of pigs on the chain increased by 14 compared to the previous month.
1%, 2 consecutive months of growth.
However, the production can continue to increase to the supply side. It is still necessary to follow up and verify. Because of the increase in breeding density brought by cumulative regeneration and the increase in unsealed live pigs in epidemic areas, the existing prevention and control system can continue to test.Continue to observe; 2) Accelerate concentration.
Expanded, the productive biological assets of the 10 listed pig companies we tracked in Q3 2019 increased by 37.
7%, which is significantly higher than the recovery of the industry’s production capacity.
500,000 heads, only 5 years ago.
2%, the decrease is significantly lower than the industry’s 22% decline; shrinking, the national slaughter of more than 5,000 pig farms on a scale of breeding sows and pigs in stock has increased sequentially for 4 consecutive months, of which the number of breeding sows in stock has increased sequentiallyThe industry situation has been increasing for four consecutive months.
3) The epidemic situation is complex, and demand for high-quality vaccines is increasing.
It is reported that the monitoring of various epidemic trends has found that the epidemic situation is still continuously complicated, and the demand for safe and effective vaccine prevention has increased significantly. It is expected that the differentiation of vaccine products will become more apparent in the future, and the penetration rate of high-end products with leading product technology will accelerate.
Second, the supply side: 1) Downstream production capacity will force the insurance industry to accelerate the clearance process.
According to grass-roots research, small and medium-sized animal protection companies, especially those with a single product structure, have a difficult survival situation in the early stage, and are declining backward production capacity, and the concentration of the animal protection industry will be significantly improved. 2) Tighter supervision,Systematic upgrading of the industry accelerated.
Policy scale, reduction, compulsory immunization vaccine opening to distribution channels, “first fight before replenishment” policy strives to achieve full coverage of large-scale farms in 2020, policy adjustments to drive the animal protection industry to shift to market-oriented competition; restructuring, in accordance with “foot-and-mouth disease””Plan for setting up highly pathogenic avian influenza vaccine production enterprises”, production workshops need to complete a three-level biosafety transformation by the end of November this year, to ensure safe control of biosafety risks, accelerated systemic industry upgrades, consolidation of barriers, and competitive landscapeoptimization.
Company size: 1) Orders are recovering, and the inflection point is beginning to appear.
According to our multiple investigations, from the latest tracking orders, the company’s foot-and-mouth disease vaccine has expanded in head breeding companies. We believe that the root cause is that the company’s product quality is stable and stable for a long time, and it can continue to achieve differentiated competition. As a result, the company has gradually passed the “one shot”Innovative models such as “multi-prevention” introduced non-foot-and-mouth disease products, and steadily increased their share in the overall market for piglets; 2) The new line was gradually accepted and put into production, and product competitiveness was upgraded again.
At the beginning of January, 5 production lines in the company’s new park, including the cell suspension culture inactivated vaccine production line, passed the certification and obtained the GMP certificate. At this point, 8 of the 9 intelligent production lines designed by the new park have been successfully certified. FMD production lines are also expected toIn the first quarter of 2020, certification and GMP certification will be achieved, and the new line will be officially put into production, which will help the company to fully realize intelligent and intensive production. It will further increase the company’s vaccine production varieties, expand existing production capacity, and upgrade product quality and competitiveness again.Continuously consolidate its leading position in the industry; 3) P3 laboratory helps the company to accelerate its research and development progress.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, the company’s biosafety tertiary animal laboratory (P3 laboratory) passed the CNAS laboratory biosafety certification, marking that the laboratory has been included in the isolation, identification and cultivation of highly pathogenic pathogenic microorganisms, as well as cattle, sheep,Conditions and capabilities of pigs, mice and other large, medium and small animals infection experiments.
With the follow-up application of permits for experimental activities of highly pathogenic pathogenic microorganisms, the company’s platform R & D capability foundation will be gradually consolidated, and R & D innovation and industrial application innovation capabilities will be opened, which will 武汉夜生活网 open up the medium and long-term growth space; 4) The product sequence is gradually complete, Future performance can be expected.
New products such as the company’s branch branch are expected to be launched in this year. The Liaoning Yikangkang flu and flu production line will also be upgraded and upgraded. The product end will be further improved from category to quality, and gradually expand and integrate internal resources to give full play to the synergy effect.Unleash business and management vitality.
Earnings forecast, assessment and rating: We maintain our expectation that the company will achieve revenue in 2019-2021.
7.3 billion, net profit attributable to mothers2.
52 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.
76 yuan, corresponding to PE is 94/45/27 times, the 北京桑拿洗浴保健 current average PE of the sector is 49 times, considering the company’s future performance of high growth, maintain the target price of 23.
32 yuan, corresponding to 51 times PE in 2020, maintain “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: The downstream capacity recovery is less than expected, and market competition is intensifying.